Weekly futures and options data from InterContinental Exchange released today showed money managers increased their bullish bets on higher oil price to a new record.Net long positions in Brent crude oil rose by 22,171 lots to 342,460 for the week to Ma…

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According to the research team at UOB Group, the pair’s outlook remains bullish although the upside faces strong resistance around 0.6880/0.6900.

Key Quotes

“As indicated last Friday, a clear break above the 0.6775 would indicate the start of a bullish phase in NZD”.

“The immediate target is at 0.6895/00 but we must highlight that 0.6880/0.6900 is a formidable resistance zone and is not expected to break so easily. Stop-loss is at 0.6685”.

According to the research team at UOB Group, the pair’s outlook remains bullish although the upside faces strong resistance around 0.6880/0.6900…

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Brent oil rebounded from 100-DMA support of $38.90, but the bullish momentum is running out of steam as futures near daily high set earlier today at $39.47 levels. Hovers around Dec 15 highFutures currently hover around $39.38/barrel (Dec 15 high). Oil…

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EUR/USD made a tepid attempt to recover ground but failed to gather momentum and remained capped by the 1.0975 zone. EUR/USD retreated from Friday’s peak and steadied around the 1.0950 level as investors continue to digest US employment data. At time o…

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The buying interest seems to have now returned to the Aussie dollar, sending AUD/USD through the 0.7400 handle.

AUD/USD supported near 0.7390

Spot is extending last week’s strong rebound from the 0.7100 neighbourhood, backed by a solid pace in the risk-on trends and a recovery of commodity prices and crude oil outperformance.

Also sustaining the Aussie momentum, speculative positioning has added to the AUD net longs by nearly 7300 contracts during the week ended on March 1.

AUD will remain under scrutiny however in light of Chinese trade balance figures due tomorrow and the speech by RBA’s Lowe, while US Labor Market Conditions Index and speeches by Brainard and Fischer are due later today in the US docket.

AUD/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.10% at 0.7424 and a break below 0.7251 (200-day sma) would aim for 0.7214 (20-day sma) and finally 0.7131 (55-day sma). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 0.7506 (monthly high Jul.10 2015) followed by 0.7851 (monthly high Jun.18 2015) and then 0.7940 (monthly high Mar.24 2015).

The buying interest seems to have now returned to the Aussie dollar, sending AUD/USD through the 0.7400 handle…

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD Offers: 1.0975-80 1.1000 1.1025-30.1050 1.1080 1.1100 Bids: 1.0945-50 1.0920 1.0900 1.08875-80 1.0850 1.0830 1.0800 1.0785 1.0750 GBP/USD Offers: 1.4185-90 1.4200 1.4225 1.4250 1.4280 1.4300 1.4335 1.4350 Bids: 1.4150 1.4120 …

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Overview :Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,279.67. Anyway, in the daily time frame, I found a a supply bar (up thrust), which is a sign of weakness. Intraday buying at this stage lo…

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The EUR/JPY recovered from the daily low of 124.24 levels, but remains weak on the day around 124.47 (23.6% of 132.29-122.06).

Weak stocks weigh

European stocks are down almost 1% on the day and that is keeping the bid tone around the safe haven JPY intact. The major US index futures are also pointing to a moderately weak opening. Nevertheless, the cross has managed to recover slightly from the daily lows.

Kuroda’s hawkish comments are also keeping Yen on a front foot. Ahead in the day, the cross is likely to take cues from the sentiment across Wall Street.

EUR/JPY Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 124.24 (hourly 100-MA), under which the pair could test hourly 200-MA level of 123.92. A break lower would expose 123.09 (March 2 low). On the other hand, a break above 124.75 (hourly 50-MA) would shift risk in favor of a recovery to 125.24 (daily high). Above the same the cross could rise to 125.59 (Friday’s high).

The EUR/JPY recovered from the daily low of 124.24 levels, but remains weak on the day around 124.47 (23.6% of 132.29-122.06).

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Despite encouraging Australian growth data, UBS analyst team stays bearish on the AUD and still targets AUD/USD 0.68 on a three-month basis and 0.65 on a six and 12-month basis. They explain how the growth “miracle” looks a little different after scratching the surface.

Key Quotes

“Australia appears to have pulled off a miracle. Recent growth numbers revealed the Australian economy expanded at an above-trend pace of 3% in 2015, a half percentage point more than anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. The data is impressive at first glance; currency markets pushed the Australian dollar higher by 0.015 to 0.744 against the US dollar.”

“However, the miracle looks a little different after scratching the surface. Almost everything that Australia exports is now being sold for less; its terms of trade fell 3.2% in the quarter to a decade low. This was not entirely unexpected, nor was the weak capex reading. Of greater significance was the government’s 2016/17 capex survey showing a 15% decline. Meanwhile, wages growth slowed further, which confirmed other surveys indicating that wages growth is now at an 18-year low. The broadest measure of Australian income growth, real net national disposable income, stayed in ‘recessionary’ territory. And, worryingly, productivity slowed. There were bright spots – the strength of household consumption for example, which caught most by surprise at 0.8% higher in the quarter. Public demand and government spending also bounced by 1.3%, but both are founded on debt; the saving rate had to decline to its lowest level since the global financial crisis and the government borrowed more to enable this achievement.”

“Plain and simple: Australia’s economic miracle is housing based. While prices are likely past the cycle peak, this is not sub-prime. Housing, in our opinion, will contribute less to growth by year-end, but there will be no imminent collapse.”

“That said, Australia’s new growth engine, services exports, needs a lower (not higher) Aussie dollar. If the RBA shares our view, we expect them to again become more urgent in their comments regarding the currency and reinforce an easing bias. A rate cut is not our central case, but a live issue. We stay bearish on the AUD and still target AUD/USD 0.68 on a three-month basis and 0.65 on a six and 12-month basis.”

Despite encouraging Australian growth data, UBS analyst team stays bearish on the AUD and still targets AUD/USD 0.68 on a three-month basis and 0.65 on a six and 12-month basis. They explain how the growth “miracle” looks a little different after scratching the surface.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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