FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that EURGBP pair after breaking out of the 0.6900-.7500 range that has developed over the last year or so, the trend is still up.

Key Quotes

“Key support in this regard lies in the 0.7480/40 region. We are biased to still look for a correction back into this support zone before a return to the trend, with a decline through that support and then 0.7400 negating the short-term bull trend and returning the market to the precious range environment. While over key supports a break of 0.7680 and then 0.7755 sees return to the trend with next resistance lying in the 0.80 region, with long-term resistance lying at 0.8260.”

Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that EURGBP pair after breaking out of the 0.6900-.7500 range that has developed over the last year or so, the trend is still up.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that In the US, ADP releases its estimate of employment change, ahead of the official non-farm payrolls report which will be released on Friday.

Key Quotes

“Although recent employment figures, looking just at the number of jobs, have been quite strong, the fourth quarter was a slow one in terms of US growth. Therefore, even if headline jobs data comes in strong, we continue to doubt that the Fed will be able to deliver the four rate hikes currently suggested in the dot plot. Still, for the time being the US central bank seems set to remain the odd duck out, being the only one to (carefully) look up.”

Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that In the US, ADP releases its estimate of employment change, ahead of the official non-farm payrolls report which will be released on Friday.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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FXStreet (Delhi) – James Smith, Economist at ING, suggests that with the prospect of further ECB easing in March, we think there is a fair chance that the BoJ will follow suit with a 10bp cut at its meeting five days later.

Key Quotes

“Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) caught markets off guard and introduced negative interest rates. The move, which will complement the existing QQE programme, takes the form of a three-tier system where only future current account balances are subject to a negative rate (similar systems exist in Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark).

Perhaps the biggest lesson of all of this is that the BoJ is more sensitive to JPY strength than had been thought. Heading into the meeting, the yen was stronger on a trade-weighted basis than it was before the October 2014 meeting. Going forward, currency movements are likely to be a key gauge of whether we can expect further cuts. In March, this will heavily depend on what the ECB delivers, and given that further stimulus is widely expected, there is a fair chance the BoJ will follow with a 10bp cut.

The case for near-term action is likely to be boosted by a further drop in consumer inflation expectations (an important factor in the BoJ’s reaction function), which are driven primarily by expected changes in food prices rather than oil. With the effect of a large yen depreciation in 2014 filtering out of the numbers, food inflation is set to fall pretty noticeably over the next few months and in turn will weigh on expectations.

Whilst the probability of a near-term cut seems pretty high, we do not currently think that this will evolve into an aggressive easing cycle. The limitations of QQE are now well documented and we feel that an acknowledgment of this was implicit in January’s decision (after all, QQE would have been the go-to tool if it was seen as a viable option). Thus, rate cuts are now the major weapon in the BoJ’s arsenal and they will be wary of running out of ammunition too quickly.

In the longer term, the BoJ will need to consider scaling back the pace of JGB purchases. Whilst it is hard to pin down when this process will commence, it could come as early as the autumn (post-election) or failing that, after the April 2017 consumption tax hike. Either way, when the decision is taken, it is likely to be coupled with further rate cuts to dampen any adverse market impact.”

James Smith, Economist at ING, suggests that with the prospect of further ECB easing in March, we think there is a fair chance that the BoJ will follow suit with a 10bp cut at its meeting five days later.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that EURUSD remain trapped in the current ranges, although note that this year pullbacks have been developing slightly higher lows.

Key Quotes

“Support in this regard comes in at 1.0825 on the day, with a decline through there suggesting a re-test of more important support in the 1.0730/00 region. Stepping stone supports below here are then 1.0640/35 and then the 1.0525-1.0450 major range lows.

Our bias, technically, while over 1.0825 is to see range resistance at 1.0985 challenged, with a break here opening a move towards 1.1090/1.1130 key pivot resistance above. A subsequent break here should see a further extension towards 1.1270 as part of a broader medium-term range.”

Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that EURUSD remain trapped in the current ranges, although note that this year pullbacks have been developing slightly higher lows.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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FXStreet (Edinburgh) – The single currency has now recovered the smile, sending EUR/USD back to the 1.0930 area after testing lows near 1.0900.

EUR/USD firmer ahead of ADP

The current recovery of crude oil prices seem to be lending some support to the pair, which has managed to bounce off session lows in the boundaries of 1.0900 the figure.

Mixed results from January’s Services PMI in the euro area have passed largely unnoticed, while EMU’s Retail Sales have expanded 0.3% MoM during December, matching estimates.

Ahead in the session, market consensus expects the ADP report to come in just below the 200K threshold and the ISM Non-manufacturing a tad lower to 55.1 for the last month.

EUR/USD levels to watch

The pair is now advancing 0.10% at 1.0925 facing the next resistance at 1.0969 (high Jan.28) followed by 1.1000 (psychological level) and then 1.1053 (200-day sma). On the other hand, a break below 1.0777 (post-ECB low Jan.21) would open the door to 1.0737 (38.2% Fibo of 1.0538-1.1059) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5).

Trade Nonfarm payrolls with FXStreet – Live Coverage

The single currency has now recovered the smile, sending EUR/USD back to the 1.0930 area after testing lows near 1.0900…

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that according to the Caixin PMI survey, Chinese output veered back into positive territory again, albeit only barely.

Key Quotes

“The composite PMI came in at 50.1, just above the neutral 50-level, recovering from a dip in December. This rebound mainly seems to follow from a stronger than expected services sector, with the Caixin services PMI gaining 2.2 points to 52.4. (Interestingly enough, the official services PMI actually declined from 54.4 to 53.5.)

Earlier this week, Caixin’s manufacturing PMI already saw a marginal improvement of 0.2 points. Nevertheless, this manufacturing index has been in contractionary territory since March 2015.

The mixed, but on average weaker Chinese data would argue in favour of further PBoC stimulus, and thus risks an acceleration of the ‘race to the bottom’ amongst central banks across the globe, with the ECB and BoJ as main contestants.”

Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that according to the Caixin PMI survey, Chinese output veered back into positive territory again, albeit only barely.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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