Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 09, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is trading below its key resistance level at 1.0005, which should maintain the selling pressure. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 1.0005 is not surpassed, look for a return to 0.9945. A break below this level would trigger a new decline to 0.9930.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 1.0005, Take Profit: 0.9945

Resistance levels: 1.0025, 1.0040, and 1.0075

Support levels: 0.9945, 0.9930, and 0.9900

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Chinese CPI up 1.9% in October vs 1.8% expected

China’s inflation climbed at the fastest pace in nine months in October and producer price inflation exceeded expectations as measures taken to curb pollution raised commodity prices.

Inflation rose to 1.9 percent in October from 1.6 percent in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, cited by rttnews.

Economists had forecast the rate to climb moderately to 1.8 percent. This was the highest rate since January, when inflation was 2.5 percent.

Nonetheless, inflation was well below the government’s full year target of around 3 percent.

Swiss unemployment rate stable at 3.1% in October

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 134,800 unemployed people were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV) at the end of October 2017, 1,631 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 9,731 (-6.7%). Youth unemployment in October 2017 Youth unemployment (15-24 year-olds) decreased by 804 (-4.5%) to 16,905. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this represents a decline of 2,190 people (-11.5%).

German trade balance showed a surplus of 24.1 billion euros in September

Germany exported goods to the value of 110.4 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 86.3 billion euros in September 2017. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 4.6% and imports by 5.5% in September 2017 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports fell by 0.4% and imports by 1.0% compared with August 2017.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 24.1 billion euros in September 2017. In September 2016, the surplus amounted to +23.7 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.8 billion euros in September 2017.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 09, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday’s analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to trade in a lower range. Despite the pair posting a rebound, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 114.00. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

To sum up, below 114.00, look for a further decline with targets at 113.30 and 113.15 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above 114.00 with a target at 114.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 114.00, Take Profit: 113.30

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.50 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.65, 11.30, 112.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 9, 2017

USD/CAD has been bearish recently after breaking above the 1.2660 resistance area which is currently expected to be retested as support. CAD has been quite mixed in light of recent economic reports. Canada’s Employment Change showed positive change to 35.3k from the previous figure of 10.0k which was expected to be at 15.3k, Trade Balance report was published unchanged at -3.2B which was expected to decrease the deficit to -3.0B, and Unemployment Rate report showed an increase to 6.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 6.2%. This mixed reports helped the currency to sustain gains, but USD is expected to make a comeback soon as the Rate Hike is highly probable in December. Today, Canada’s NHPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%. Positive outcome of the report is likely to encourage further gains of CAD against USD in the short term. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 232k from the previous figure of 229k, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 15B from the previous figure of 65B. As for the current scenario, if Canada’s economic reports reveal better than expected readings, then we might see further bearish pressure in the pair whereas negatively forecasted US reports will also be a strong factor for a further directional move in this pair. To sum up, CAD is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure after bouncing off the dynamic support level of 20 EMA. As the price proceeds towards the support level of 1.2660, we will be looking forward for a break below or bounce off the level. If the price breaks below the 1.2660 level with a daily close then, we will consider sell positions with a target towards 1.2410 support area. On the other hand, if the price bounces off the 1.2660 with a daily bearish rejection or bullish engulf, then we will be looking forward to buy with target towards 1.30 resistance area. The bearish bias is expected to continue until price remains below 1.2850 resistance area.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis Based on Breakout – Buy a bounce from 1.1481

EURUSD – Up
Buy a bounce from 1.1481
Technical Observation:
Eur is currently trading below its pivot weekly pivot line 1.1632 but above a key weekly support line 1.1481. If you went short based on yesterday’s forecast, leave this position open but only up to 1.1481, if the price can decline below this support, then further decline towards the weekly support line 1.0468 is expected. As it is on the weekly chart above, a key hurdle can be seen at 1.1481, and any short positions currently opened must not be allowed to remain below it.
Technical Levels
Resistance levels
R1: 1.1669
R2: 1.173
R3: 1.1828
Pivot
1.1632
Support Levels
S1: 1.1435
S2: 1.1533
S3: 1.1571
Trade Signal
Wait and buy a bounce from 1.1481

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 9 – 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to follow the expected path lower towards the ideal downside target at 1.6545 from where a new impulsive rally towards 1.7770 is expected.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.6750 and a break above here will be the first indication that wave ii has completed and wave iii higher is developing. To confirm that wave iii indeed is developing a break above resistance at 1.6813 is needed.

R3: 1.7059

R2: 1.6890

R1: 1.6813

Pivot: 1.6750

S1: 1.6614

S2: 1.6545

S3: 1.6518

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.6790 and will move our stop+revers lower to 1.6770. Take profit+reverse remain at 1.6565.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis Based on Breakout – Sell Usd around 114.38

USDJPY – Down
Sell Usd around 114.38
Technical Observation:
Usd is pulling back upwards but still below 114.38. I went short around 114.38 and is still holding onto this position. My expectation is that the price should continue to plummet but with a fixed take profit set at 108.25. As it is on the daily chart above, if you didn’t go short around 114.38, then wait for price to reach here then short Usd with your stop loss above the recent highest higher 114.50.
Technical Levels
Resistance levels
R1: 114.06
R2: 114.26
R3: 114.8
Pivot
113.73
Support Levels
S1: 112.66
R2: 113.19
R3: 113.53
Trade Signal
Sell Usd around 114.38 towards 108.25.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 09, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair posted a strong rebound last night, and is now above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index has reversed up, and is displaying strong bullish momentum.

In which case, as long as 148.90 holds on the downside, look for a continuation of the rebound to 149.90 and 150.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.90 with the target at 148.50.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.30, Take Profit: 149.30

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.90, 150.35 and 151.00

Support levels: 148.50, 148.15, and 147.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com