Global macro overview for 14/02/2018

At the end of 2017, American citizens’ debts exceeded the historic amount from the third quarter of 2008 – the New York Federal Reserve informed. However, there is no concern about this state of affairs on the financial markets yet.The total debt of Americans due to mortgage loans, credit cards, student loans or debts for the purchase of a car is 13,150,000,000,000 Dollars. This astronomical amount of USD 13.15 trillion (USD 13.150 billion) was 473 billion USD higher than the previous record from the third quarter of 2008 (12.68 billion USD). However, while in 2009 the household debt in the US was 87% of the gross domestic product, currently the ratio is 67%. From the bottom of the second quarter of 2013, the debts of American households increased by 17.9%. Only in 2017, American debts have grown by 572 billion USD. At the same time, the US savings rate has fallen close to 2.0% – the lowest level in a decade. More than 75% of the debt balance were mortgage loans amounting to a total of 8.88 trillion dollars. That is 139 billion USD more than a quarter earlier. To this must be added 444 billion USD of the balance of loans taken out against property.

Although Americans’ debts have hit the crisis record, their replayability is generally the same or even better than Lehman Brothers’s bankruptcy. With the exception of increasingly troublesome student loans (where more than 10% of loans have a delay in repayment exceeding 90 days), the situation looks quite good. However, we should take into consideration the fact that interest rates in the United States are still very low and the unemployment rate has remained at its lowest level in 17 years. When the prosperity is over and the cost of credit increases, America will have another credit hangover.

Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical support at the level of 89.64, dipped a little more, but now is bouncing back towards the level of 90.11. If the bulls will get strong enough to break out above the level of 90.50, the price might return to the main channel and try to test the next technical resistance at the level of 90.98.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company –