Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for February 14, 2018

USD/CAD has been struggling at the edge of the 1.26 resistance area from where the price is expected to proceed lower in the coming days. USD was quite impulsive with the bullish gains after the release of the positive Employment Change report but could not sustain the impulsive bullish pressure to break above the 1.26 area. Ahead of the probable rate hike in March, USD is expected to be quite weaker for a certain period of time when CAD has good chance to recover its grounds. Today, USD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core CPI report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Core Retails Sales report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.4%, Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to increase to 2.8M from the previous figure of 1.9M. The economic reports are forecasted to have mixed results which might lead to a further losing of grounds against CAD in the coming days. On the other hand, CAD has been struggling with the economic reports recently having worse Employment Change report. This week on Friday, CAD Foreign Security Purchases report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 19.18B from the previous figure of 19.56B, and Manufacturing Sales is expected to have significant decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 3.4%. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to continue its gains further against CAD, but after a certain retracement or pullback which is expected to pull the price downward before an impulsive bullish momentum hits the price to create more highs in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure inside the volatile corrective structure bouncing off the 1.26 price area. Rejections off the 1.26 area has been quite strong and containing the price below the area that indicates a certain bearish pressure in the market. As the price remains below 1.26 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with target towards 1.2450 in the coming days.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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