Forex

Forex

Author: 
Sanjay Kumar
Thu, 2017-08-17 03:00
ID: 
1502915239464366400

NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Independence Day speech in New Delhi on Tuesday, condemned the killing of people in the name of religion.
The speech, coming on the day when India celebrates its 70th birthday, holds significance. Religious violence and attacks on secularism have defined the three-year government of the Hindu right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
This has created fear among large sections of society about the direction Indian democracy is taking.
Some 6 km away from the Red Fort, where Modi delivered his speech, Abdul Haq Qasmi and some 25 of his students loiter around India Gate, a prominent landmark in New Delhi.
With flags in their hands, they chant “saare jahan se achha Hindustan hamara” (India is better than all the countries in the world).
A local imam in a nearby mosque, Qasmi is very protective of his students, and makes sure they do not get lost in the crowd of hundreds who usually flock to the lawn of India Gate for leisure during holidays.
“History doesn’t allow me to trust Modi,” the 30-year-old told Arab News. “Economic development means nothing if you keep your population in fear and deprive them of peace and harmony.”
It is this fear that outgoing Vice President Hamid Ansari spoke of on the eve of his retirement last week.
In an interview with a television channel, he talked about the “feeling of unease and a sense of insecurity” among Muslims.
Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi expressed concern in Parliament last week about the “dark forces” diminishing India’s core values.
But the BJP and its patron Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a radical Hindu right-wing group that works as an ideological fountainhead of the ruling party and Hindu fringe groups, reject these concerns.
Rakesh Sinha, a prominent thinker in the RSS and head of the India Policy Foundation, a right-wing think tank based in New Delhi, described political developments since 2014 as “decolonization of Indian politics and Indian discourse.”
He told Arab News that India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who is called the founder of a liberal, secular and democratic India, “Westernized the idea of India, which was alien to the vast majority, and Modi is bringing about a course correction.”
He said “secularism in India so far meant an appeasement of Muslims,” and the creation of an “Islamic ghetto” in the country “that we’re trying to dismantle.” He added: “We’re on the path to becoming a “genuine liberal democracy.”
Many in India find this argument very disturbing. They say it is the resurrection of the “two-nations theory,” which led to the partition of the country and believes that Hindus and Muslims cannot live together.
Gopalkrishna Gandhi, great grandson of India’s iconic freedom fighter Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, wrote in the English daily Hindustan Times: “The Two Nations Theory, we must now remind ourselves, had Muslim and Hindu adherents. Pakistan slaked the thirst of the first. That of the second is now wandering over the Indian countryside looking for, thirsting for, disemboweling the Indian earth for, the aquifers of hate.”
Irfan Habib, a prominent historian teaching at Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), told Arab News that the current government is “steeped in religious communalism that creates fear among religious minorities.”
Veteran BBC journalist Mark Tully told Arab News: “Modi runs a Hindu government. He has moved away from the center-right position that the previous BJP government under Atal Behari Vajpayee took, and this is disturbing.”
For the rise of Hindu extremist forces, Tully also blames the Congress Party for “not spelling out in clear terms its secular ideology.”
India at 70 is in a state of flux. The very idea of it as a multicultural, multilingual, multi-religious country is at stake.
Seventy years ago, when the nation-building process started, religious minorities trusted the assurances given to them by the political leadership.
Today that trust is broken. Qasmi’s anxiety is genuine, as are the concerns of many regarding the direction the country is taking.

Main category: 
related_nodes: 
Modi says India will fight foreign threats
Modi urges India to reject violence in name of religion

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Buried deep in today’s FOMC Minutes was a warning to the equity markets that few noticed…

This overall assessment incorporated the staff’s judgment that, since the April assessment, vulnerabilities associated with asset valuation pressures had edged up from notable to elevated, as asset prices remained high or climbed further, risk spreads narrowed, and expected and actual volatility remained muted in a range of financial markets…

 

According to another view, recent rises in equity prices might be part of a broad-based adjustment of asset prices to changes in longer-term financial conditions, importantly including a lower neutral real interest rate, and, therefore, the recent equity price increases might not provide much additional impetus to aggregate spending on goods and services.

 

According to one view, the easing of financial conditions meant that the economic effects of the Committee’s actions in gradually removing policy accommodation had been largely offset by other factors influencing financial markets, and that a tighter monetary policy than otherwise was warranted.

Roughly translated means – higher equity prices are driving financial conditions to extreme ‘easiness’ and The Fed needs to slow stock prices to regain any effective control over monetary conditions.

And with that ‘explicit bubble warning’, it appears the ‘other’ side of the cycle, that Hussman Funds’ John Hussman has been so vehemently explaining to investors, is about to begin…

Nothing in history leads me to expect that current extremes will end in something other than profound disappointment for investors. In my view, the S&P 500 will likely complete the current cycle at an index level that has only 3-digits. Indeed, a market decline of -63% would presently be required to take the most historically reliable valuation measures we identify to the same norms that they have revisited or breached during the completion of nearly every market cycle in history.

The notion that elevated valuations are “justified” by low interest rates requires the assumption that future cash flows and growth rates are held constant. But any investor familiar with discounted cash flow valuation should recognize that if interest rates are lower because expected growth is also lower, the prospective return on the investment falls without any need for a valuation premium.

At present, however, we observe not only the most obscene level of valuation in history aside from the single week of the March 24, 2000 market peak; not only the most extreme median valuations across individual S&P 500 component stocks in history; not only the most extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define; but also interest rates that are off the zero-bound, and a key feature that has historically been the hinge between overvalued markets that continue higher and overvalued markets that collapse: widening divergences in internal market action across a broad range of stocks and security types, signaling growing risk-aversion among investors, at valuation levels that provide no cushion against severe losses.

We extract signals about the preferences of investors toward speculation or risk-aversion based on the joint and sometimes subtle behavior of numerous markets and securities, so our inferences don’t map to any short list of indicators. Still, internal dispersion is becoming apparent in measures that are increasingly obvious. For example, a growing proportion of individual stocks falling below their respective 200-day moving averages; widening divergences in leadership (as measured by the proportion of individual issues setting both new highs and new lows); widening dispersion across industry groups and sectors, for example, transportation versus industrial stocks, small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks; and fresh divergences in the behavior of credit-sensitive junk debt versus debt securities of higher quality. All of this dispersion suggests that risk-aversion is rising, no longer subtly. Across history, this sort of shift in investor preferences, coupled with extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, has been the hallmark of major peaks and subsequent market collapses.

..

The chart below shows the percentage of U.S. stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages, along with the S&P 500 Index. The deterioration and widening dispersion in market internals is no longer subtle.

Market internals suggest that risk-aversion is now accelerating. The most extreme variants of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions we identify are already in place.

A market loss of [1/2.70-1 =] -63% over the completion of this cycle would be a rather run-of-the-mill outcome from these valuations. All of our key measures of expected market return/risk prospects are unfavorable here. Market conditions will change, and as they do, the prospective market return/risk profile will change as well. Examine all of your investment exposures, and ensure that they are consistent with your actual investment horizon and tolerance for risk.

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On the economic calendar today, the focus is the Australian July jobs report. I’ll be back with previews for this
2245GMT – New Zealand – PPIs for output and inouts, Q2

The post Economic data due from Asia today – Aussie jobs report appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

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FOMC meeting minutes
The dollar is getting weaker after the meeting minutes.  The EURUSD has moved to a new session high but only by 1 pips so far. The 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.1766 and 1.1767 converge and should be a key target above for the pair…

The post FOMC meeting minutes. Most Fed officials backed B/S move at “an upcoming meeting” appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

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Statement coming out…..
The post Strategic and policy forum:Intolerance, racism and violence have absolutely no place in this country appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

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