BNPP recommends staying short AUD for RBA cut next week. Take it with a pinch of salt

“We maintain our bearish outlook for the AUD heading into next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting on 2 August.

Our economists are still expecting the RBA to cut rates by 25bp (60% is priced into the AUD rates market), despite the slightly firmer Q2, underlying the CPI print this past week.

Our BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis highlights that AUD exposure is actually net long, with a score of +14 (on our scale of +/- 50). We view such positioning as far too complacent against a backdrop of declining commodity prices, rising US real yields and potential RBA easing.

We remain very bearish on the AUD targeting a move to 0.70 over the next three months”.